Thursday, September 15, 2022

投資

最近無聊起嚟拎起 Ben Graham 本 The Intelligent Investor 嚟睇。

Ben Graham 係專業嘅資產管理者,佢話用佢啲方法投資,可能會比市場贏多幾個巴仙,講緊嘅係好大筆數入面好穩陣咁比一般人賺多啲,當然係好勁。

但,我望返自己,甚至大部份人,其實每年多幾個巴仙係咪真係差咁遠?用返傳統財金佬𠱁人買基金嘅講法就係,啲錢越滾越大(compound interest),十幾廿年後就會好大分別。呢個固然係事實,但相對於人生大部份嘅決定,呢啲單位數%嘅影響,好多時係微乎其微。

人生最大嘅投資,通常都唔係錢,而係生活裡面佔最重要比重嘅嘢。細個就係學業、朋友;大個就加埋事業、婚姻。點解我感慨到要開個 post 特登講,就係啲金融才俊九牛二虎之力又 diversification 又剩,先賺多幾%,但正常人生活最重要嘅決定,幾乎全部都係(被迫) all-in 嘅。學業 all-in,最多咪讀個 double degree?工通常都係每份工做幾年以上,唔會同時做幾份;婚姻更加係冇得唔 all-in,預計綑綁成世。(香港人多樣嘢:買樓都係成副身家 all-in)以上幾樣嘢,每一樣都影響緊你人生包括身家總值唔只幾個%,但好少人會純粹用金錢回報計數。冇夢想同條咸魚冇分別?係都要講咩個人興趣呀、愛情呀,懶係冇咁俗氣。

對於大部份人嚟講,你揀嘅工作、行業、公司、老闆, 對你嘅收入嘅影響先至係最大;而你揀嘅伴侶同朋友,對你嘅支出嘅影響先至係最大。如果你連最大嗰條數都唔係咁 care 金錢回報率,例如娶個老婆返嚟有 30% 機會廿年後身家俾佢分走咗一半,或者拒絕咗個二世祖追求同個窮撚結婚 opportunity cost 三千萬,咁結婚之後你走去買個儲蓄保險,佢同你講最高年回報有 3% 定 4% 其實係咪真係咁大分別呢?

所以某程度上,Ben Graham 徒弟 Warren Buffet 推薦嘅投資方法可能更加切合普羅大眾嘅實況:搵啲值得投資嘅嘢,all in,長揸。而「值得投資」嘅嘢唔多,一世人可能得幾次機會,要好好珍惜。


Sunday, September 11, 2022

Beliefs

Given a subjective interpretation of reality, can we show that some beliefs cannot be identified as encodings in physical reality?

My gut feeling is that the answer is likely yes, and even if the answer is not as interesting as I thought it would be, the process of exploring it would yield interesting results.

For example, if we had a machine that, somehow purported to accurately decipher your brain neurons and tell you what you (objectively) believed, what would it be like?

Perhaps there would be instances in which the machine would claim you believed in X, but you actually believe you honestly believe in Y. Assuming the machine is really reliable due to some physical law or whatever... is this possible to have a belief that isn't encoded in physical reality, something that the machine cannot detect or will contradict you? This might be a parallel with free will vs determinism, in the objective interpretation of reality the two might not be that different, but in the subjective interpretation, beliefs seem to have more power than mere "will".

Perhaps it is useful to imagine something slightly different -- a machine that can tell you what color you perceive. It doesn't do so by just asserting the colors it displays on the screen, but rather, in addition to displaying colors on the screen, probe into your brain to try to figure out which neurons are firing. Is it possible for such a machine to misreport what you perceive?

This goes back to the question of whether we perceive the color "red" in the same way. While most people (those without a colorblind situation) can usually agree whether an object is objectively "red", there seems to be nothing physical that ensures one's perception of "red" is the same as another's. What if there is the same thing for belief?

Another funny thing about the a "belief probe" is that it might actually be able to probe the brain for "beliefs", and might actually be accurate in doing so for the overall person. But if it were only one belief, it might still not be able to accurately probe the subjective beliefs within a person. What if multiple "consciousnesses", with conflicting beliefs, were within the same physical body (as in the case of multiple personality disorders).  The "tsundere" factor might also come into play, where while the probe might accurately predict behaviors, the subjective consciousness might dismiss it as superficial, because thoughts might not necessarily translate to concrete action. Is it necessary for a mere subjective feeling to always have a physical basis?

There is also the issue of meta beliefs, i.e. "belief of belief of belief ... ". Do they complicate the picture? I don't know.

It feels as if sorting this out properly could make way for identifying room that metaphysical entities might theoretically reside, if they exist.

Saturday, September 10, 2022

舊酒新瓶

本身我唔係好跟時事,舊年 NFT 熱潮推到癲瘋嗰陣,有朋友問起,我先臨急抱佛腳走去望咗兩望究竟係咩嚟。NFT 技術上大概係乜我就有少少頭緒,不過實際上點解會有人肯為咗個 token 俾成千上萬,我就一直都唔明。雖則話 crypto 嗰排水浸,有班暴發戶亂咁揈錢,但我心諗都未至於解釋得晒成個熱潮嘛?

直至最近,諗起傳統 fine art 市場。


原來又係舊酒新瓶。

點解一幅「名畫」可以值幾百萬?本身搵個畫師臨摹,貴極都唔使嗰個價,隨時搵個夠撩倒嘅,一千幾百有找。啲「名畫」嘅價值其實都唔係在於藝術品實物,而係作品背後嘅「故事」。咩「X畫家唯一傳世真跡」、「Y畫家臨終時最後作品」,呢啲喺外人眼中都係虛無縹緲嘅嘢,支撐咗啲「名畫」大部份嘅「價值」。大家都相信佢好值好貴,所以就值好貴。

睇返呢啲吹水嘢,同 NFT 比較,真係完全冇分別。

至於 NFT 係咪呃人,就好似我畫張圖,我話佢賣一千蚊,咁係咪呃你?


《勇者打怪圖》筆者畫


都係願者上釣㗎啫。

如果我話「遲啲市價會更貴,有人會用一萬蚊買㗎」咁就真係呃鳩你喇。

Thursday, September 8, 2022

「教主」

好似啱啱出咗 https://stevejobsarchive.com/

我 2010 年入公司,嗰陣佢已經係*唔知乜*末期,已將大部份工作交咗俾 Tim Apple。Tim 處事四平八穩,聽聞以前死鬼老細啲 all hands meeting 多啲有趣嘢聽 (同埋以前公司細啲,人少少冇咁拘謹)。冇機會見識,回想返都幾可惜。

第一次同佢有比較深刻嘅接觸,已經係公司為佢舉辦嘅紀念活動。(一時搵唔到官方嘅嘢,可能刪咗?老翻片喺度 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApnZTL-AspQ )本身我對佢冇咩認知,見坊間啲人對佢評價兩極,覺得好不可思議。由於同我有比較切身關係,偶然都會留意下或自己搵下資料睇下係咩一回事。

所以就有早幾個月嘅體會。死鬼老細最出名係做蘋果同Pixar CEO,不過以打機嘅「職階」計算,佢應該歸類為「先知」。睇返佢以前嘅訪問,睇得出佢收收埋埋啲學識都好得人驚。正所謂「愛就係選擇」,佢只不過選擇咗搞 consumer electronics 咁解。

可能佢唔係一種好傳統「先知」嘅款,但以(我認為)最重要嘅元素嚟計,佢又的確齊齊哋。其實「先知」可以以各種式形出現,喺美國資本主義社會,改變人類對科技同營商手法嘅信仰,未嘗唔係一種有效嘅「傳道」手法。

或者佢花佢幾乎整個人生走去設計個人電子產品,真係押啱咗注。想像下地球上俾得起錢嘅人,有一半係用緊佢整出嚟嘅產品,呢種影響力其實仲勁過各大宗教。或者你可能會問:唔係喎以前 windows 咪壟斷得仲犀利? (但 windows 冇靈魂嘛)