Sunday, December 20, 2020

Lies, Damn Lies...

Statistics

Statistics tip: Always try to get data that's good enough that you don't need to do statistics on it - Randall (xkcd2400)

This rings so true. When data points to an obvious conclusion, you don't need fancy analysis to arrive at some hypothetical correlation that may or may not be real. Perhaps the emphasis on statistical tools and methods within the sciences and social sciences in recent decades are a symptom that real progress is hard to come by, and data had to be marinated with statistical sauce to be made to work.

Statistics is also heavily utilized in "big data" as well -- even disregarding the "little data" applications and  puffs-and-smoke buzzwords, it may be true that even "real" big data is somewhat doomed from the start -- sure, you may crunch the numbers and discover that a 2.4% increase in user engagement can be achieved by tweaking some feature, and that often translates well into bottom line numbers... but the crucial question is unanswered -- does it make a better product? Does the user actually benefit?

And thus the old adage: Lies, Damn Lies, ... and Statistics.

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