Thursday, April 24, 2025
浩然之氣
Monday, April 21, 2025
Forgetting
It seems recently I am starting to forget what I wrote.
Sometimes I re-read my writings and have no idea what the fuck I was trying to say. (Generally I eventually recall most of it, but still...)
Thursday, April 10, 2025
The missing link in Bayes' Theorem
Bayes' Theorem implies that if you have sufficiently strong priors, evidence to the contrary does not matter. It is, sort of a "proof" (the irony of this word in this context is not lost on yours truly) of "whatever you believe is true, is true".
But where's the catch? What makes the argument sound so flimsy?
It just occurred to me what the problem is -- the assumption that "death" is real.
Our idea of objective truth is that it is dictated and judged by "death" and "death" alone.
The only way to finally determine whether somebody is delusional or not is whether they die while following their beliefs. Anything else seems to be a matter of opinion, where upon civilized people agree to disagree.
But what if they don't die? If the idea of death is truly illusional, *then* we must accept, in a kind of collegial spirit, that all opinions held by fellow souls must be equally valid. To denounce anyone's opinion is to curse with death -- ineffective of course, but to the accurser it is.
Friday, April 4, 2025
New Loans to cover old loans
In Hong Kong, it's well known that there is a cap on the interest (48%) one can charge for loans per Money Lender's Ordinance.
Now let's say Mr. X needs $100. He has an apartment that is valued at approx $1000. He takes a $100 loan from an unscrupulous money lender, repayable over 10 years, at 20% p.a. secured against the apartment. The loan contains a clause that says if the borrower defaults on any payment, the whole loan including future interests would be immediately payable.
Now, the kind of person who'd take a loan from "money lenders" at 20% interest instead of "banks" is the kind who's not particularly creditworthy. So, almost inevitably, Mr. X fails to make a payment towards the loan, let's say 2 years later.
So, in the first year principle+interest=$100+$20, let's say repayment is $30
second year, principle+interest=$90+18, let's say $30 is repaid as well
after the second year, principle is $78
If Mr. X defaults at this point, the remaining interest (8 years) is $78 * 20% * 8 = 124.8, so Mr. X is liable for $78+124.8 = $202.
Mr. X still has an apartment that is valued at $1000, and he doesn't want to lose it, so the money lenders suggest Mr. X to take out another $202 loan to cover the original loan. It's more risky for the lenders, so interest rate is now 30%.
Mr. X obviously still has to repay the loan, and given that he couldn't repay the original $100 loan to begin with, he struggles to repay a $200 loan. After a couple months, he fails to make a payment on time again. This time he's liable for paying $750 (the principle plus 30% interest). The money lender makes an application to court to recover $750 from Mr X, who eventually has to sell his apartment to repay the outstanding amount.
So, in less than 3 years time, the money lender lends out $100 and has an "effective" return of almost $800+
If you take a broader view, that's pretty much a 200% effective interest rate...
Is this even legal? I pondered this question when I first heard of such stories.
And apparently it is:
HONG KONG SAI KUNG NGONG WO RESORT DEVELOPMENT LIMITED(香港西貢昂窩渡假村發展有限公司)V. TOTALCORP (NOMINEES) LIMITED [2022] HKCFA 28
""" if the parties agree that money advanced on a fresh loan on new terms will be used to pay off an old loan, they can give effect to the transaction by set-off without having to pay over the money and then take it back. The agreement can be taken at face value. But there is nothing in any of these cases to suggest that if the parties agree to vary the terms of a loan, by extending the term or changing the rate of interest, that must count as entering into a new loan. In either case, the law gives effect to what, as a matter of construction, appears to have been the intention of the parties evinced by the language they have used. If it is expressed to be a new loan, it is treated as a new loan, notwithstanding that the money was used to pay off an old loan. If it varies the terms of an old loan, the agreement will vary the terms without creating a new loan. """
In the judgment, it seems valid for lenders/borrowers to create a new loan contract where before which the effective interest rate might exceed the statutory limit, it would not have been exceeded afterwards.
The case doesn't directly touch upon the issue I mentioned, but if it's allowed to create a new loan to cover an old loan and the legality of the new loan only rests on the terms of the new loan without reference to the old, then I don't see why the situation above would be illegal.
遞歸式模擬
*早排同朋友吹水,對話大致如下
A: 世界局勢變幻不定,究竟點先可以知會發生咩事呢?
B: 而家科技倡明,行 simulation 咪得囉。
A: 但如果個 simulation 入面啲人都打算行 simulation 咁點算?
B: 咁無窮無盡㗎喎 👻
(*按:我唔記得同exactly邊個同幾時。應該都係分靈體之一)
我個問題係:點樣避免呢個問題?係咪可以模擬一個唔識整模擬嘅世界出嚟?
Wednesday, April 2, 2025
山西經
「河水出焉,而南流東注于無達」
已知崑崙 = Khum (Khufu)
佢話「河水注于無達」就肯定知係地中海
一查 The Ancient Egyptians called the Mediterranean Wadj-wr/Wadj-Wer/Wadj-Ur
咁啱又啱音...