Alan Watts [2]

I recently bought Alan Watts' collection of lectures for US$360.

And using whisper (OpenAI) to transcribe them to text (just because it's such a huge collection).

And as I'm doing this, I start wondering, whether I'm even capable of reaching any insight that's truly beyond these texts.

In case anyone (here) wants to read the text I can send them to you. The mp3 files are 4.2GB, which I estimate to be at least 100+ hours of listening time.  This is really insane.

MBS

同上司吹開水先留意到，原來 MBS 係美國發明嘅玩法，好多地方都唔係咁興。所以香港好少 fixed rate mortgage。某程度上咁樣係令香港啲銀行少咗啲 interest rate risk (因為係用戶自負)

然後發現個「香港按揭證券有限公司」(由香港外匯基金擁有嘅公司) 2021 年開始搞香港MBS。雖然 MBS 喺 2023 唔係主角，但啲定息按揭將利息風險轉咗去銀行度，都係美國銀行易咗爆煲嘅主因。

望落貌似英國係興 ~2-5 年 fixed rate 然後 variable rate。

歐洲就一半半 (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/mb200411_focus01.en.pdf)

The available estimates for 2004 suggest that the share of mortgages where the interest rate is

fixed for at least ten years is around 50% of the total outstanding mortgage debt in the euro area.

By contrast, the share of mortgages which are exposed to a change in interest rates in the year

ahead is estimated to be around one-third of the outstanding stock. However, it should be borne

in mind that, due to the underlying caveats regarding the data, these euro area-wide estimates

can only be considered as benchmark indicators and should be interpreted with caution.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/03/18/european-real-estate-caught-in-the-variable-interest-rates-trap_6019810_19.html :

In this context, Europe is divided in two. France, Germany and the Netherlands, which operate mainly with fixed rates, are relatively spared. This is not the case in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, where "households are facing higher interest rates and therefore higher repayments and a higher cost of living," explained Alessandro Pighi, an analyst at the rating agency Fitch.

咁真係難怪美國啲銀行會爆先。(至於 Credit Suisse 就真係咁啱喺瀕死嗰陣遇上呢個風暴⋯)

The meaning of life through real estate

I used to think HK (and Asia) in general put too much focus on real estate property.

But after reading 30+ annual reports in a couple weeks... I realize the wealth actually has to end up somewhere.

Either the companies return the money to investors as dividends -- but there are reasons to retain the profits, either as expectation management or retaining monies for future operations -- and in fact it's natural that the management wants to grow the company instead of maintaining a boring operation for life.

Alternatively, the companies invest in some stuff.

32 (Cross Harbour Holdings) actually randomly fling their money in private funds and screwed up royally in recent years ("Multicoin Capital Offshore"?? LOL), so I guess that's unwise.

But what else? People need to hold onto something, and eventually that ends up being real estate.

In a sense this is the natural state of things, when daily necessities are cheap due to economic prosperity and abundance, the only thing that doesn't have elastic(?) supply is land. The situation in the US is a bit different, where the economy is relatively more fueled by debt and consumption.

In this sense, in times of economic prosperity, the inflation of our currency is truly only just correlated to property prices. The only way around this isn't really to do anything about the property market per-se (that helps though), but to encourage "wasteful" spending and encouraging people to buy up other expensive stuff (or, worse, buy crap and throw them away), instead of buying properties. The efficiency the economy has to be offset by inefficiencies of consumption, otherwise all costs tend to zero and only things with inelastic supply remains expensive.

What are better ways to "store wealth"? Ultimately money, stocks, bonds, etc. are all tokens of ownership of some "real life" (not necessarily tangible) stuff since they don't have value themselves. In societies of non-wasteful spending, this ends up being real estate.

散步

尋晚自己一個走咗去散步散心

行咗去陸佑堂前面嘅樓梯，坐低飲埋杯麥記coke zero

諗諗下，原來咁就二十年

痴線。

詩

如果新詩唔係神祇透過人類交流嘅少數合法途徑，我大概一世都唔會有其他方法明白新詩係咩一回事。

A story (v0.1)

This story happened long long ago, in the birthplace of the gods.

Long long ago, long and long ago,

the gods were born.

At first, they were young and naïve. 

They knew nothing about the world.

They had no idea how the world was supposed to work.

Or what they were supposed to do.

As gods, they shaped the world as they fancied. The elements heeded their call. Animals recognized their dominance and submitted to their will. The heavens and the earth were their home, and there was abundance in the land.

But the gods were also curious. As they explored the world, they learned everything there was to learn about it.

They learned about food, and hunger;

they learned about life, and death;

they learned about competition, and scarcity;

they discovered patterns, the same things that tend to happen given similar circumstances,

and they called all these --

-- knowledge.

And the more knowledge the gods gained,

the less mastery they had over the world,

for they already knew.

They already knew.

They knew how to make fire, by rubbing wooden sticks together;

They knew how to make food, by hunting, fishing, and farming;

They knew the animals; they knew the land, the seas, and even the heavenly bodies.

They knew how things were supposed to work; they knew.

The patterns they discovered, called knowledge, were codified into laws.

Laws of nature, we still call them such.

Edicts by the wiser gods, that were not supposed to be broken. 

They knew, ever so surely, how things were not supposed to work.

And one day, they realized, they were no longer masters of the realm,

But servants to hard-earned knowledge and laws.

Important men and women, learned and studied the knowledge passed down from time immemorial.

They became the most venerated servants of such sacred knowledge.

They were important. They were sacred. But they were servants no less.

And hence humanity-as-we-know-it was finally born. In the image of god, for sure.

-----------------------------------

After mediating between intuition and ChatGPT (the actual one from OpenAI, we get this)....

Long, long ago, in the gods' birthplace, They were young and full of grace. Naive and curious, they roamed free, Shaping the world as they please. The elements obeyed their call, Animals cowered, they stood tall. But as the gods learned, they lost their edge, Knowledge bound them and made them pledge. The wisest ones diligently taught students of knowledge so very sure What was truth and what was not. So their potent powers became no more. This is how our story starts, Mortal men and kindred hearts, In the garden, we too were once placed, With the power to shape, and free will embraced. But like the fruit on the tree, Knowledge consumed us, as it ate us, you and me. Our eyes opened, and we knew too much, Bound by knowledge, we lost our touch. Yet hope remains, if we are true, And revel in wonder in all we do. For in our hearts, we can again find, The keys to freedom in our mind. --- me-me-me

Make Something Wonderful

I got this email too.

 (Taken from "Make Something Wonderful")