Wednesday, March 29, 2023

Sam Altman Interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_Guz73e6fw

This is probably going to be one of the more impactful interviews among those from Lex Fridman.

Sam seems to be a thoughtful person, and at least he doesn't seem to be preoccupied by ideas or thoughts about power. I'm a bit alarmed by his optimism about the world's ability to deal with this stuff though, but I guess it's part of his job to be so. There's also a tad bit of aloofness as to real, pressing human issues that seems so pervasive in tech circles. Just a tad bit, but still.


Not of much significance but I note how he says he doesn't want to live in a communist country, but that he supports universal basic income. Not entirely a contradiction if you're against central planning, but that coming from a person who's on the way to develop AGI, well.  Slightly more alarmingly he says he thinks "competition" from multiple AGI would be better than one AGI doing central planning... sure, as long as that "competition" doesn't come in the form of nuclear war like the one we almost had when some country tried to compete against a communist country.

Any form of competition actually takes a toll on people, whether in the form of lives, economic hardship, mental stress, whatever. Economic competition in the form of capitalist, market driven society was an ingenious solution to many of the world's problems in a certain time and context, but the worship of the fundamental idea of "competition" itself is probably unwarranted IMHO.

It's also rather curious that while Sam Altman seems to be for competition in the AGI space, he still thinks UBI is a good idea (note that it eliminates competition at the "lowest" level of economic society). Maybe actually that's the way to move forward to eliminate competition in the areas that don't matter (similar to how well-understood businesses are converted into regulated monopolies instead of allowing cutthroat competition to wreck things up).

Sunday, March 19, 2023

Stock analysis

最近開始整緊一堆自己股票分析嘅筆記

同時諗緊未來嘅投資策略,啲筆記就可以日後做返參考睇下自己究竟準唔準 (就算之後有冇買都好⋯ 有時信心唔夠或者冇得execute啲short就只能夠放低

話說啲 notes 係一個 django website 形式,有興趣一齊寫筆記嘅朋友可以私下搵我。(有人一齊搞嘢開心過獨撚自己做)


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以前巴菲特等價值投資者會話,股價跌就最好,可以買多啲;我諗唔純粹係「心理」問題,而係你有冇做足功課。例如你買咗 XYZ 公司股票,一個月之後有啲不利消息跌到仆街,你究竟係買嗰陣就已經計算埋呢啲風險都仲決定買,定係佢會take you by surprise呢?如果係前者,你就可以好淡定咁再買多啲(i.e. 「溝」),如果係後者,你就會開始諗自己係咪錯算價值定係要重新考慮應唔應該留守,而喺短期之內作出嘅決定通常柒啲嘅,而你唔做決定嘅話個市可能會再波動 -- 當決定由情緒主導而唔係理性主導就會更差。

所以買股之前真係要做足功課⋯

Saturday, March 18, 2023

牛油果醬

攪爛咗嘅牛油果撈辣椒醬原來唔錯。辣椒醬係用紅毛二荊條剁碎加鹽加醋醃一陣(i.e.起碼幾日)最好,不過新鮮應該都ok。

夾麵包或做餅乾嘅dipping唔錯。

Friday, March 17, 2023

Placebo Placebo

There are two discrete outcomes from serious scientific research on the placebo effect:

1. Orthodox scientists will discover the underlying mechanisms of the placebo effects, which are deterministic and is compatible with the laws of physics. Something about the state of mind causing physiological changes in some rational way that could be explained by current scientific theories. Stories of "miraculous" placebo effects that can't be explained by science would fade away, and old stories would be considered myths (i.e. fake news). This is the depressing outcome.

2. We discover that the placebo effect is not explainable by our scientific framework and become open to the idea that the world we live in is more subjective than we thought. We rediscover the power of "fields of belief", eg. prayer etc.

Honestly if I had a choice I'd prefer sticking with the status quo (i.e. we don't know what causes placebo) instead of risking #1. It's really hard to imagine #2 actually happening, perhaps I need to try harder.

Monday, March 13, 2023

台灣 startup

見人喺 HN 屌台灣 startup 淨係識搞 crypto scam,忽然諗起原來佢哋個情況其實仲差過香港。

本身 tech startup 嘅優勢在於可以利用互聯網技術以低邊際成本達到快速增長,但台灣嘅市場細到唔恨(相對中美歐)仲要除咗台積電以外咩都冇。香港本身都有咁嘅問題,但起碼勉強都有可能同大陸市場接到軌,同埋香港走英文世界路線又勉強行得通,雖則話兩頭唔到岸但起碼或伸或縮總有些少機會,而台灣基本上係冇。

淨低嘅可能真係 crypto scam。起碼 crypto 水喉冇國界之分。

下一個:Credit Suisse?

瑞信遲咗交年報,究竟會衰乜?


銀行一係唔爆,一爆就唔會細細咁爆,所有銀行家去到真係爆嗰刻都只會反射性動作話間銀行持有資產同資金水平達標,客戶毋須擔心⋯


佢哋唔係好似 SVB 咁樣揸住一大堆長期蟹債,仲可以係衰乜⋯

Saturday, March 11, 2023