The confusion between free will and determinism

My own comment from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38083093

I think I described it pretty well, and the point that determinism produces "free will" (in the "nothing else is influencing the outcome but me" sense) is probably the first time I put it in words.

QUOTE:

 > In my opinion my actions are a deterministic function of the state of my mind (including memory, personality) + input. I have no choice in the matter, only an illusion of one

It's important to note that as far as materialist physics goes, "you" are literally "your state of mind (including memory, personality) and input". The fact that this system (i.e. "you") produces an apparently deterministic result doesn't mean that "you" didn't do it.

The common confusion comes from the fact that systems cannot in general predict their own outputs without going through the required computational process. I think it's related to the concept of "computational irreducibility". So "you" as a system needs to go through the set of motions to figure out what you eventually decide to do. Before the deliberation you can't predict the result, and thus it "feels as if" "free will" is a messy indeterministic process. But that's not a given.

Weird things happen when some other system can predict "you". The problem there is that if "you" can be simulated, you don't know which "you" is "real". But the mere fact that your state of mind and inputs will deterministically produce decisions doesn't mean "you" don't have a choice. In fact it is opposite -- "you" do have a choice, and _only_ the system "you" makes the choice (and thus it is determined solely by "you", hence, deterministic!)

Prices and inflations, another voice

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UzMNewP5pc

呢條友講到佢發現新大陸咁

屌，講啲嘢仍然走唔出「印錢=>物價貴」嘅基本觀察... (i.e. https://centraltrunks.blogspot.com/2023/10/blog-post.html )

個問題係 BTC 本身係一個幾重殺戮嘅資產嚟..

共鳴

尋晚老朋友結婚，聽住啲人唱聖詩，忽然發現，我竟然明白佢哋講緊乜。

喺「地獄」之中先會發現最深厚嘅「恩典」，大概係我近年最意想不到嘅收獲。

 

Intelligence as an omnipresent phenomenon

 Is it possible that "intelligence" is an omnipresent phenomenon? Or even _the_ substrate of existence?

We already know that human-alike intelligence could be trained by a couple hundred lines of code (and lots of data and compute).

In the physical universe, data and compute can be "free" (if harnessed correctly). Trillions of molecules (as both data and computational things) are present in every speck of matter in our world.

We also know that language is limiting. Multimodal models seem to suggest that instead of using language as protocol, if we just feed neural networks vectorized stuff and give them some time to "learn" and adopt to the language, we don't need human-understandable language for things to work.

In fact, it seems to me that language is a limiting factor in such cases. Instead of vectorized representations of "meaning", language forces these vectors into a single dimension and small number (~10-20?) of bits for each word. We struggle to communicate with words, since they encode meaning poorly. 

So it's reasonable to hypothesize that if we plug two objects that emit signals together, they will be able to learn and communicate automagically. We won't understand the protocol since we always try to compress the vast amounts of signal into our language, but apparently this just works in nature (even across species).

The use of language is probably a mixed blessing - on the one hand it is a clear and physical manifestation of a simple protocol to convey meaning. On the other, the limitation of bandwidth (~20 bits per second?) severely retards the potential of thought and intelligence. The fact that we believe language is the pinnacle of human intelligence shows how naïve we are. And it probably explains the parable of the Tower of Babel as well....

----

So there are a couple weird ideas:

1. Does "computation" even need "data" to become intelligent? It depends on whether there is such a thing as universal intelligence? Consider that the structure to simulate worlds can be minimal (see eg. Mandelbrot, game of life, and even laws of physics), and these worlds can generate vast amounts of "data", it seems that even if computation systems are isolated to places with very little entropy or noise, the systems will eventually be able to achieve some kind of intelligence by simulating worlds and learning from them. This seems like a candidate for a theory of cosmology (i.e. we are just in one of such simulations) based on our latest understanding of the power of computational networks and generative systems.

2. if computational structures of the right type somehow exist in the universe, then intelligence is ubiquitous, omnipresent (and perhaps to a large extent omniscient). The "problem" is that, just as we do not understand the weights of LLMs, the meaning of the vectors of word embeddings, etc., we do not understand this universal "field" of intelligence, and attribute it as noise.

"Desert Fathers"

 我尋日諗咗好耐究竟出唔出post講：啲人話要跟從耶穌但佢哋做咗第一步(領洗)之後，連第二步都做唔撚到就話自己係基督徒有少少搞笑。最後冇出到，費事挑起無謂嘅紛爭啦。

第二步其實就係去沙漠做毒撚。話說我猜想呢招可以靠減少干擾去增強法力便於練習魔法。點解冇人做呢？

第二日我就好「隨機」咁得知有呢樣嘢： https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desert_Fathers

source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4LoXCl7drQ - 呢條片喺我個 playlist 一段時間冇認真睇。

Youtube synchronicity 同 Facebook synchronicity 真係好撚強大⋯

PS : 之後發現臉書朋友個 comment 都有，係同一日睇到嘅，但我過兩日先留意到。

Manifestation

 https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02Xhup7kZBZUYGvp8t9imQYTPBH7ggu3DFrRokML27jeSXBDV3YmP8j7nrG6kzxwuhl&id=61550893512996

呢啲互相印證嘅嘢真係要抄低：

#指導靈談顯化

文／怡伶

2023.6.5

指導靈一直對我相當有耐心，不管是我在接訊息時遇到了什麼樣需要中斷的情況，上廁所、被小孩呼喚、或是分心去做其他事，祂都從未催促或不耐。

—-

昨天在接訊息的時候，指導靈告訴我所謂的顯化是怎麼一回事。

以能量上來說，顯化是一瞬間的事情，比如說送光、比如意念的傳達。

然而在物質層面上，顯化就需要時間了。（妳想要什麼東西，需要時間去透過行動把它實踐出來。）

顯化就是「意念+行動」。然後需要耐心等待。

比如說指導靈可以透過意念將訊息傳送給我，我也可以馬上接收到，但是要將他說的話顯化成文字，就需要我的行動（把這些句子寫下來），這段時間祂能做的就是等待。

指導靈說，許多人沒有顯化出成果，不是因為它不能實現，而是因爲他失去耐心。

顯化，需要意念、行動，還要耐心，就像指導靈對我這樣，祂一直在等著我接到祂的訊息，接到訊息後也等著我將訊息寫下來。

「這點等待不算什麼，我們已經等人類覺醒等好幾千年了！」

只能說，神靈們對人類真是真愛，超級無比有耐心。

感謝，感謝，再感謝啊🙏

圖/網路

物質嘅沉重

聽聞「心想事成」係宇宙基本法則嚟，起碼「你真心相信啲乜，嗰樣嘢就高機率發生」呢樣嘢理論上係真嘅，係真係有如此嘅理論，古今中外亦都有呢個傳統。

咁但係點解唔係成日work，甚至成日都唔work？

本身我好直觀咁諗咗幾個原因出嚟：

1. multiplayer 世界唔可以出咁多 cheat
2. 人類自己封印咗自己嘅能力
3. 物質世界啲變化通常比理想中慢好多，一般期望變化係幾秒幾幾個星期內發生，但好多時啲反應係以年計 (呢個絕對係真)

所以一直都有啲想試下驗證 #1 而走去啲少啲人嘅地方睇下局部地區嘅 single player mode 存唔存在。

但睇完呢度 https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61550893512996 講嘅嘢之後忽然醒起，人少嘅地方唔代表靈少⋯ 而有佢哋喺度都唔可以話係 single player mode。我 X，咁睇唔到某片土地嘅「靈口」有幾密集嘅話就試唔到呢樣嘢⋯ orz

然後我喺度諗，照計多樹多動物嘅地方嘅「靈口」就唔會少，可能都真係啲沙漠嘅地方先掂。

然後我又諗起耶穌大佬，一開始都係走咗去沙漠修行四十日⋯ 有時啲嘢講到咁白，問題係冇咩人夠膽自己一條友走去啲冇人嘅沙漠幾十日覺醒神力⋯

講真耶穌出道嗰幾步全部都係好make sense嘅，基本上你夠膽照做只要唔死唔癲都理論上會得到啲力量⋯

第一、領洗  - 係借助某啲傳統，攞咗「會籍」先。「會籍」係比喻嚟，我諗重點都係借助某啲傳承嘅力量去 kick start 啲嘢，否則好難開始。

第二、走去冇干擾嘅地方，快速養成同練習使用力量。 (見上 hypothesis #1)

第三、有力量之後，總會受到個人貪妄嘅誘惑，引你不當咁使用力量。呢下要小心唔好中伏 https://hnfong.github.io/public-crap/writings/2022/06-%E8%80%B6%E7%A9%8C%E3%80%81%E9%AD%94%E9%AC%BC%E3%80%81%E5%B9%BB%E8%A6%BA.html 

第四、要發願出到嚟為救濟萬民於苦海，唔係用嚟達成私利。（出得嚟行，搞到咁高調，通常都要倒貼⋯ 用返我認知嘅系統去講，耶穌出嚟濟世幾年就死於非命，係啲神蹟去得太盡，唔單止係世俗個世界接受唔到，甚至連宇宙法則都可能打碎咗幾條，我估喺靈界層面都接受唔到 （起死回生嗰啲，雖然話人命未必係直接兌換咁換，但冇咩理由唔使付代價⋯） anyway 使盡自己嘅生命力去救人，大概結局都只能夠係咁。

anyway, 講返原本話題⋯ ehh 就係如果要試 single player mode 可能真係要去啲冇咩生命嘅地方。 That said *聽聞* 冇地球生命嘅地方可能有其他生命，所以... 雖然我不斷重申我唔想睇到啲非物質東東，但有時真係覺得睇到會比較方便自己做實驗多啲⋯ :-/ 

美元通漲紀

好耐好耐以前，喺大海嘅另一端，有一個國家。某年某月某日，佢哋嘅央行印咗一堆銀紙。

啲銀紙印咗出嚟之後就借咗俾政府救濟萬民於水深火熱之中：

一般教科書就會話，印咁多銀紙會造成通貨澎漲。但 CPI 冇咩即時嘅變化：

雖然 2021~2022 年通漲係有啲勁，但相對於印咗嘅銀紙，升幅唔算好誇張。

所以呢個故事教訓我哋，印銀紙係唔會導致通漲嘅。印銀紙係唔會導致通漲嘅。印銀紙係唔會導致通漲嘅。印銀紙係唔會導致通漲嘅。（至少唔會引致用 CPI 計算嘅通漲）

CPI 用民眾生活相關嘅物價計算出嚟，而嗰啲嘢唔係靠市面上有幾多銀紙去定價，而係最小學雞嘅供求定律。

人多咗錢，尤其係疫情流行嗰排，唔會買幾袋米喺屋企擺，更加唔會租多兩間屋，或者每日揸多幾十里路車。

所以通漲直接影響嘅，係啲人忽然多咗錢買啲 on9 嘢：

甚至啲 CPI 開始升嗰陣，我哋嘅主角 J Powell 仲喺度話通漲係「過渡性」嘅，唔使驚，唔使加息。當時我仲喺度恥笑佢，但而家諗返其實佢有佢嘅道理，因為始於 CPI 唔係市面上有幾多錢嘅問題，而係供求問題。而當時供應鏈的確出咗啲事。

咁當然普京攻烏克蘭都有啲影響：

如果你真係相信 CPI 純粹供求問題，而通漲主要係因為運輸、燃油價格上漲，咁央行又真係冇需要考慮加息嘅。

咁但係印銀紙真係唔會引起通漲咩？其實喺 CPI 以外，啲物價係升到含含聲：

咁「價格」呢樣嘢係相對嘅。呢啲嘢嘅價升，係因為佢哋升值，定係因為貨幣本身貶咗值呢？喺呢個情況，我傾向覺得後者比較講得通。

細個嗰陣成日問點解銀行唔印多啲銀紙出嚟，咁大家咪可以有錢食飯囉。

Turns out 只要食物供應足夠，印銀紙周街派救濟飢民係真係可行嘅。甚至係只要啲嘢有 inelastic demand 就得。

但相反啲唔等使嘅嘢就升值升得好快。越唔等使嘅嘢升得越快。所以股票同金升少少勉強跑贏通漲，BTC 升咗幾倍，而 GME 呢類 meme stocks 就升到變數字遊戲。同期嗰啲 NFT 同各種神奇怪幣層出不窮，都係啲唔等使嘅嘢變得好值錢嘅現象。

眾多跡象都顯示，印出嚟多咗嘅錢，基本上去晒呢啲唔等使嘅嘢度。

FTX 爆嗰陣我慨嘆：好在有 crypto 咋，如果唔係啲人喺傳統金融體制內玩嘢嘅話，對經濟傷害更大呀。 經過大半年不斷反覆思考印錢同通漲嘅關係之後，而家諗返感受更深刻。某程度上可以話，係 crypto 呢個 money sink 救咗 J Powell 一命。印多咗嘅錢自動走晒去 crypto （睇返啲 crypto market cap 條數係幾 match 嘅），然後邊個炒 crypto 輸錢嘅就抵死啦，關人忍事。

J Powell 印錢，雖則話通漲已經控制喺 4% 以下，所以其實啲 5% 美債係所謂嘅零風險收 1% 實質利率，但你渣住嘅美元美債係咪每年真係只貶值 4% 呢，就好值得商確。如果你嘅錢只係為咗一日兩餐同埋租個狗竇，咁美元只係貶值 4%。不過如果你啲錢係想用嚟過啲比較中產嘅生活，買車買樓過小資生活，咁你嘅美金貶值幅度就肯定唔只 4%。

某程度上，你用唔同嘅價值參考指標，可以得出唔同嘅論述。

例如你用 nominal 美元去講述經濟狀況，就會見到所有嘢越嚟越貴，但自己嘅人工同資產又不斷上升。總之有多餘嘅錢就做定期啦！有 5% 好好㗎喇！

如果用 CPI-adjusted 美元去講，就會見到(nominal)美元慢慢貶值，而樓價股價不斷上升，證明經濟環境大好。不過唔知點解人工總係追唔上樓價股價嘅升幅。

如果你係用薪金去講，就係 CPI 計算嘅嘢越嚟越平，即係只要你肯做嘢嘅話，有手有腳唔會餓得死。不過想過中產生活，買樓買名牌，咁就唔知幾時先有咁嘅機會喇。

如果你係用資本嘅角度去講，就係其實市面上嘅嘢甚少有真正增長，所有貌似增長緊嘅嘢，其實係靠 QE 去維持。點解 CPI 咁低？因為科技發達，農業技術進步，糧食充足，同埋有(美國)政府補貼，所以糧食價格越嚟越低。其他生活必需品都係同樣道理。至於租點解低？因為 QE 造就低息環境，所以租金都被壓低。所有嘢越嚟越平，呢個的確係現代社會成功解決貧窮嘅一大進步。但同時，喺資本角度，一般工人嘅薪金亦都一直下跌，只係冇 CPI 跌得咁快。否則點解以前一個藍領工人做幾年嘢就買到樓，而家佢做幾十年都冇可能置業？

至於「事實」係點就真係哲學問題嚟。錢只係數字遊戲，自由市場定價亦冇話邊個先啱。

講到尾我自己都走唔出一個好抽象嘅哲學問題：究竟錢有咩用？究竟一個經濟體系應該用嚟做啲乜？ 其實答案未必係「大家安居樂業有飯食有瓦遮頭」⋯ 第一生存本身係經濟體系存在嘅先決條件，唔係一個目的嚟。講目的就要喺基本生存以外再搵啲嘢出嚟做，例如古代某啲文明就將人類嘅剩餘價值可能係攞咗去起金字塔。美國就好有趣嘅，除咗發明一堆嘢減低經濟效率之外，就係用嚟維護民主價值 （i.e. 整軍備，倒落海) 中國人就更加有趣，全部去晒買樓。躺平係講緊只要你冇打算喺城市買樓，基本上真係唔需要咁努力。呢個真係 first world 到唔再 first world 嘅 problem 嚟，不過又係真嘅問題嚟。多餘嘅 GDP 如果唔係用嚟搞社會福利主義，咁應該攞嚟做乜呢？如果冇任何嘢去消秏資源，去到最後，都總會有一堆資產係升值升到天價。所以呢，可能我哋都真係應該去起下金字塔⋯

Synchronicity...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/united-air-window-seats-economy-class-board-first-wilma-plan/ 

So, I was thinking why didn't they do this a couple days ago.....

nobody got fired for reading Google Deepmind papers

https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.01798

真係廢到一個點，浪費咗我30分鐘

個問題係啲作者間機構太出名，就算睇咗頭兩頁覺得篇文係鳩嘅，唔睇又好似驚漏咗啲重點咁。

花咗 30 分鐘之後終於證實咗篇文係講阿媽係女人嘅嘢，屌

Book Review: Pan - God of The Woods

Pan - God of The Woods ( Lawrence R. Spencer )

諗住睇神話故事，點知睇到一半發現係「推しの子」嘅男女主角雙胞胎重生劇情⋯

-_-

omnimpotence

 only when we have not yet decided, can we decide.

this is the basic premise of free will.

the all powerful have decided all, their past present and future.

we do not know, and thus only we are free to decide

we choose where we are

where we will go

and where we came from

once we decided, we are bound

so only decide if it is what your soul yearns for

——

we know the simple things

we do not know the complex

so the simply things we cannot decide

we can only decide the things that were unknowable

the stone is simple, we already know what it is going to do

the mind is complex, that is why we have power over the mind and not the stone

perhaps the simple mind is not easily possessed?