speed of light

For any photon we only know two things about the path: where it was emitted, and where it interacted with another thing. We don't know the path it took to get there.

This is to note that the so called "speed of light" is only a measure of the ratio between the "straight" distance between points and time. Statistically light travels in straight lines due to the Feynman path-integral or whatever, but there's a slight chance it takes a "longer" path. I wonder what this implies for speed of light limitations...

Placebo Magic

Placebo effect 作為現世最強勁嘅魔法（之一?），其實係應該值得深入啲探究嘅。

或者叫 placebo effect 有啲太過 specific，始終醫學上呢個現象有某種定義同假設 (i.e. 唔會違反科學物理定率)。但我講緊嘅係包含但不止於一般意義嘅 placebo effect，講緊自我形象、對自我嘅認知同假設，影響自己身體嘅實際功能同狀態。我諗叫 "placebo magic" 會比較準確啲。

例如我開始懷疑啲人點解肥得耐咗好難減返，就係因為人慣咗自己嘅身形，明明食少咗嘢，潛意識都唔識得 adjust 返對身體嘅期望，總係覺得「肥先至係自己」，然後減得好辛苦，苦咗少少又彈返原本個磅數。某程度上呢個立論就解釋咗點解 "calories in, calories out" 可能唔係真，甚至可以解釋點解有啲人食好少嘢都可以維持到身體功能 (i.e. 練仙嗰啲)。亦都解釋到點解有啲痴線人士覺得自己可以長時間不吃不喝，但眾目睽睽就會失靈 (單機 vs mmorpg，另外啲 mon 住身體狀況嘅科學儀器都會加強科學定理嘅作用)。

Placebo magic 點解 work，主要都係就算大家玩緊 MMORPG，始終自己身體同自己最密切，自己最關心，平日諗得最多。主觀事實對自己身體嘅影響最大，喺各種傳說中嘅世界法則嚟講，通常都會承認「我」係有權操控「自己嘅身體」嘅。所以如果世界上有以主觀事實產生嘅魔法，就必定係喺自己身體體現。相信主觀事實可以改變世界嘅，必定會推斷出自己身體係最易受影響。

我懷疑知道咗呢堆嘢之後，除咗普通嘅 placebo effect 同埋慣咗肥減唔到之外，應該會有其他嘅應用方向。諗到再寫。

銀芽

銀芽個execution好好，聲畫俱靚。

個故仔講地震災難，作為香港人會比較少共鳴。不過我諗主要嘅問題係，佢開咗好多個「坑」唔撚填，好多情節冇頭冇尾。有少部份大概係明白佢「想」表達啲咩，例如隻貓大臣亦正亦邪嘅態度，就係比喻緊女主角對於阿姨嘅關係。兩者都係為咗被收留而搞到收留者失去咗愛情(或者只係「失去男人」?)，兩者都係為「反叛」同「離家出走」，到最後先同長輩（大貓）和解。

不過故事情節上有少少夾硬嚟囉。

其他故事嘅情節都交待得好差，例如關門師爺爺點解一開始極力反對，之後又教佢點入個門？佢同(左)大臣嘅關係係咩？啲門點解開？大臣點解會喺門外被解凍？男主本身去女主個村度做乜？世界上其他關門師去咗邊？點解女主要入門淨係可以用佢以前用過嘅門？第四隻凳腳去咗邊？點解大臣會咒到男主變成凳？啲丘蚓係咩嚟？要石點解係貓嚟？點解其他人見到佢係靚仔 （但大家post IG嗰陣係貓？)？阿姨最後兩條感情線點收科？邊個將古書啲字抹黑？點解？ 喂大佬開咗咁多坑唔填返幾個就收工，個故仔砌得幾冇心思喎。

套戲好多新海誠嘅 motif，唔知係好事定壞事。好嘅方向諗係有個人風格，但某程度上都會俾人一種舊酒新瓶嘅感覺⋯

Sam Altman Interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_Guz73e6fw

This is probably going to be one of the more impactful interviews among those from Lex Fridman.

Sam seems to be a thoughtful person, and at least he doesn't seem to be preoccupied by ideas or thoughts about power. I'm a bit alarmed by his optimism about the world's ability to deal with this stuff though, but I guess it's part of his job to be so. There's also a tad bit of aloofness as to real, pressing human issues that seems so pervasive in tech circles. Just a tad bit, but still.

Not of much significance but I note how he says he doesn't want to live in a communist country, but that he supports universal basic income. Not entirely a contradiction if you're against central planning, but that coming from a person who's on the way to develop AGI, well.  Slightly more alarmingly he says he thinks "competition" from multiple AGI would be better than one AGI doing central planning... sure, as long as that "competition" doesn't come in the form of nuclear war like the one we almost had when some country tried to compete against a communist country.

Any form of competition actually takes a toll on people, whether in the form of lives, economic hardship, mental stress, whatever. Economic competition in the form of capitalist, market driven society was an ingenious solution to many of the world's problems in a certain time and context, but the worship of the fundamental idea of "competition" itself is probably unwarranted IMHO.

It's also rather curious that while Sam Altman seems to be for competition in the AGI space, he still thinks UBI is a good idea (note that it eliminates competition at the "lowest" level of economic society). Maybe actually that's the way to move forward to eliminate competition in the areas that don't matter (similar to how well-understood businesses are converted into regulated monopolies instead of allowing cutthroat competition to wreck things up).

Stock analysis

最近開始整緊一堆自己股票分析嘅筆記

同時諗緊未來嘅投資策略，啲筆記就可以日後做返參考睇下自己究竟準唔準 （就算之後有冇買都好⋯ 有時信心唔夠或者冇得execute啲short就只能夠放低

話說啲 notes 係一個 django website 形式，有興趣一齊寫筆記嘅朋友可以私下搵我。(有人一齊搞嘢開心過獨撚自己做)

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以前巴菲特等價值投資者會話，股價跌就最好，可以買多啲；我諗唔純粹係「心理」問題，而係你有冇做足功課。例如你買咗 XYZ 公司股票，一個月之後有啲不利消息跌到仆街，你究竟係買嗰陣就已經計算埋呢啲風險都仲決定買，定係佢會take you by surprise呢？如果係前者，你就可以好淡定咁再買多啲（i.e. 「溝」)，如果係後者，你就會開始諗自己係咪錯算價值定係要重新考慮應唔應該留守，而喺短期之內作出嘅決定通常柒啲嘅，而你唔做決定嘅話個市可能會再波動 -- 當決定由情緒主導而唔係理性主導就會更差。

所以買股之前真係要做足功課⋯

牛油果醬

攪爛咗嘅牛油果撈辣椒醬原來唔錯。辣椒醬係用紅毛二荊條剁碎加鹽加醋醃一陣(i.e.起碼幾日)最好，不過新鮮應該都ok。

夾麵包或做餅乾嘅dipping唔錯。

Placebo Placebo

There are two discrete outcomes from serious scientific research on the placebo effect:

1. Orthodox scientists will discover the underlying mechanisms of the placebo effects, which are deterministic and is compatible with the laws of physics. Something about the state of mind causing physiological changes in some rational way that could be explained by current scientific theories. Stories of "miraculous" placebo effects that can't be explained by science would fade away, and old stories would be considered myths (i.e. fake news). This is the depressing outcome.

2. We discover that the placebo effect is not explainable by our scientific framework and become open to the idea that the world we live in is more subjective than we thought. We rediscover the power of "fields of belief", eg. prayer etc.

Honestly if I had a choice I'd prefer sticking with the status quo (i.e. we don't know what causes placebo) instead of risking #1. It's really hard to imagine #2 actually happening, perhaps I need to try harder.

台灣 startup

見人喺 HN 屌台灣 startup 淨係識搞 crypto scam，忽然諗起原來佢哋個情況其實仲差過香港。

本身 tech startup 嘅優勢在於可以利用互聯網技術以低邊際成本達到快速增長，但台灣嘅市場細到唔恨（相對中美歐）仲要除咗台積電以外咩都冇。香港本身都有咁嘅問題，但起碼勉強都有可能同大陸市場接到軌，同埋香港走英文世界路線又勉強行得通，雖則話兩頭唔到岸但起碼或伸或縮總有些少機會，而台灣基本上係冇。

淨低嘅可能真係 crypto scam。起碼 crypto 水喉冇國界之分。

下一個：Credit Suisse?

瑞信遲咗交年報，究竟會衰乜？

銀行一係唔爆，一爆就唔會細細咁爆，所有銀行家去到真係爆嗰刻都只會反射性動作話間銀行持有資產同資金水平達標，客戶毋須擔心⋯

佢哋唔係好似 SVB 咁樣揸住一大堆長期蟹債，仲可以係衰乜⋯

FDIC bank failure history

Woa

 https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/